Comet Elenin Becoming A Disappointment to Astronomers

The size and brightness of comet elenin is becoming a disappointment to more astronomers who are now beginning to lose interest in the comet.  Sydneystargazers also predicted this a month or so ago that Elenin may end up a fizzer like the last visit of Halley’s comet. We will still document it here but don’t expect too much fuss about Elenin in the scientific community.

Comet Elenin is currently south of the ecliptic plane but will move north of the ecliptic plane on the 14th of September at a distance of 0.6 AU from Earth or 89,758,800 km ( 233 times further away than our Moon).

When comet Elenin passes Earth at it’s closest distance on October 16 it will be 0.03 AU or 4.5 million km north of the ecliptic plane.

According to the latest orbital data on Elenin updated 3 days ago, when comet elenin passes Earth not only will it be well above  the Earth’s orbit but it will also be  0.233 AU (34.8 million km away from Earth or 90 times further away than our Moon.

And since the comet will be north of the ecliptic plane, so will it’s tail. This most likely means we will not even see any meteor showers when Elenin passes.

For those who don’t know, the ecliptic plane  is the plane of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun.

So to summarize…..

When it passes Earth October 16, comet Elenin will be well north of the ecliptic plane and 34.8 million km away.

Not exactly close since the minimum distance Venus gets to Earth every 1.5 years is 38 million km.

Data on Elenin suggests that the comet is only about 3 or 4km in size which makes it rather a small sized comet.  Hopefully it will be still visible in the sky later this year but it certainly is not going to live up to the expectations of it currently circulating around the Internet.

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~ by sydneystargazers on July 5, 2011.

24 Responses to “Comet Elenin Becoming A Disappointment to Astronomers”

  1. It is not bright because it is a brown dwarf!!! …….. only joking 😉

    Disappointing I was hoping for a show…

    Thanks guys…

  2. MAY… the operative word is “may”…

    Nobody really knows if this new comet will be a good show or a bad show.

    Did anybody predict that Comet Holmes would blow up with a coma the size of the SUN? Nobody expected that.

    http://www.space.com/4643-incredible-comet-bigger-sun.html

  3. Why as of today July 05, 2011… NASA has ZERO pictures of Elenin?

  4. We shall see . But I,m really starting to think this site is government orientated. Prehaps something to do with that Nerd from NASA David Morrison.

    He was famously quoted as saying in the begining of March the following. One reader said someone on you tube predictes a massive earthquake between 11th to 15 th March due to the Comet Elenin alignment………..He replied ………

    There will be NO earthquake , this alligment theory is nonsense . THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR EARTHQUAKE…..repeated several times ……….

    Needless to say he remained mute after the Japaese Quake on the 15th March………………..EGG ON FACE ALL ROUND !

    Again , why is your server based in Texas ? you only bought a telescope in 2009 Roy ? Now your an expert all of a sudden……………………….The PLOT THICKENS

    Keep spinning your political agenda brother

    • And the conspiracy theories continue…………………

      People wonder why NASA has not got involved with the Elenin theories. David Morrison from NASA personally gives time to answer the questions he is asked and all he gets is attacks from conspiracy sites.

      Even looking at the questions that Leonid Elenin has had to answer on his site from those that believe in the conspiracies … I bet he wished that he had not discovered the comet with all this rubbish that has being generated.

  5. Lets be honest here , above you say that data suggests your words dated today 5th July !

    ” Data on Elenin suggests that the comet is only about 3 or 4km in size which makes it rather a small sized comet.”

    In another thread you state dated today 5th July.

    “Elenin is still too far away to tell but it is most likely between 4 and 12 km . We will not know for sure until it gets closer”

    So is it a relatively small comet or quite a big comet 12KM . Simple fact is you don’t & nore does anyone else know. You are just confusing people & adding to the theories Buddy !

    NASA said this was a wimpey comet,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,They simply don’t know it could be 12 Km or maybe larger still………..FACT

    Another fact, as it approaches no one can acurately predict how close OR how far it will come to earth , I know it , you know It so why not say so ?

    • Forgive us… we did not realize that you were going to be so picky.

      We did mean to say “New data on Elenin suggests that the comet is only about 3 or 4km in size”

      You really need to stop worrying so much about Elenin…… the calculated orbit of Elenin is pretty much spot on. You may want to call NASA scientists nerds as you have and not believe what astronomers around the world are saying………but they do know their jobs.

      Unfortunately conspiracy sites have nothing better to do other than to try and look for problems that do not exist and upload whacky theories to you tube.

      So relax … Elenin is not a brown dwarf… it is not being flown by aliens and it is not about to crash into the Earth or come anywhere near it.

  6. I know Elenin is not a brown drawf , I never said it was YET AGAIN your inferring something which I don’t believe in. Why do you keep on doing that?

    Nor is it flown by Aliens ….that’s just stupid.

    I never said it would crash into Earth either.

    You keep on doing this but really that just speaks volumes as I,ve said before about your generalisations.

    FACT – 1. You keep reffering to yourself as WE ! That’s very weird as in your introduction you say your name is ROY & are an ameeture who bought his first telescope 3 years ago .

    FACT-2 Nasa DO NOT nor do you know the precise orbit of Elenin around the sun. I am not inferring that it will crash too earth , that’s just silly . But saying you know the eaxct orbit is as wrong as saying it will crash to earth. That’s why JPL/Nasa monitors Elenin each day you see it’s approaching from the Ecliptic ( Same orbit as the Planets ) like watching an approaching car somewhat head on around a large sweeping bend , very difficut to judge EXACT orbit until it gets closer…I know this but then again your an ameture.

    FACT-3 No one can know for sure the size of the Coma when it lights up……………………uuuuuum uuuuuuum comet HOLMES as stated above. After all this is a “New Comet”

    FACT-4 The size of comet elenin is unknown even by NASA. Your going to look pretty silly if it’s 12 Km the data suggests 4 to 12 Km in diameter.

    FACT-5 There is no way to know if comet elenin has a debris tail. Afetr all we are seeing it head on . Although no doubt you will refute that to the bitter end.

    You see Your self & the conspiricy theorists are on opposite ends of the spectrum. I on the other hand are somewhat in the middle. I have read the Electric universe theory & it makes perfect sense to me theory all the same BUT

    3 allignments = 3 major earthquakes
    Elenin passes Saturn = 10 month Electric storm

    A brown dwarf —- na I,m not on that boat

    But I am on the Electric universe theory boat, I think it’s time you differentiate between conspiricy theorists & Electric Universe believers.

    PEACE

    A quote :He who can no longer pause to wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead; his eyes are closed……Einstein

  7. We analyzed your picture of Elenin on 6-17-11 when it was 7 days away from passing the orbit of Mars. Then we focused on Mars with the same magnification. Elenin was bigger. How can you say it’s a small comet when it’s clearly bigger than Mars at the same distance and equal magnification?

    • Out of curiosity how did u analyze their image?

      Thanks

    • For those who do not know, when it is stated that Elenin has passed the orbit of Mars this means that comet elenin will reach the same distance as Mars’s maximum orbit around the sun.

      In it’s orbit, the furthest distance Mars is from the Sun (aphelion) is 1.67AU or 249 million km. The Minimum distance from the sun(perihelion) for Mars is 1.38 AU or 207 million km. Now Mars is on the other side of the Sun from Earth and on June 17th it was 1.44AU or 215 million km from the sun.

      At the same time, comet Elenin is on the Earth’s side of the sun and on June 17 comet elenin was 1.78 AU or 266 million kms.

      On June 24, Elenin reached the maximum distance of Mar’s orbit around the sun…….. but lets remember that on June 17 Mars is 1.44 AU on the other side of the Sun.,

      So now the question from G Ray is why do we say Elenin is small when according to G Ray he has compared our picture of elenin to his picture of Mars for that day and Elenin was bigger than Mars.

      The answer is simple. Even though Elenin passed the maximum orbit of Mars, Elenin is on the opposite side of the sun from Mars.

      So when taking a picture of both Elenin and Mars on June 17th….. you find the following:

      Elenin distance from earth June 17th is 1.82 AU (272 million km)
      Mars distance from Earth June 17th is 2.25 AU (337 million km)

      Elenin is much closer to us and of course will look larger than the much distant Mars.

      Since Elenin and Mars are not at an equal distance from Earth, it is pointless to compare their size no matter what magnification is used.

  8. So what if elenin IS a ship with an active torsion generator (big magnet for space travel) on it’s way to save us from a real comet impact? Even 4 km is a big ship! What if it IS a dwarf star? It will not curve around the earth, like nasa says, but come careening right at us and yank the clouds right off the earth. You don’t know. So stop saying it’s nothing! It could be jesus and the saints coming in a cloud to do battle with the devil. Isn’t the devil red? It could be a serpent (something red with a long tail) with 7 heads (planets) and 10 horns (moons). Still think you know?

  9. Pray that Obama don’t shoot at ’em when they get here.

  10. Hey Guys, number one, do you really think you can see even a 12 km object at 1.819 AU’s away? This was the accurate distance to Elenin at the moment the 6-17-11 photo was taken. To get more detailed on my analysis and size comparison, I went to the area where syd took the photo and it did agree with NASA”s JPL coordinates. I recognized the stars in the shot. I then achieved the same magnification on this group of stars. Then, I went back in time in the software to late December 2010 where Mars was the exact distance away from Earth in it’s orbit (1.819 AU’s). I put the software on Mars with the exact magnification I used in the earlier frame. I picked Mars because it’s so easy to see – it’s a bright red dot.

    Again, Elenin, at the same distance and magnification is larger than Mars. Perhaps the dust field around Elenin scews the comparison, but I tried to compare the solid part of it. Since Mars is 53% of the size of Earth, this is an object with significant size. Syd provided an excellent image on a specific date – my hats off to the gazers.

    • It is impossible to compare only the solid part of elenin as the comet is surrounded by it’s coma……. it’s visible atmosphere.

      It is estimated that the solid part of Elenin is only 3 or 4 km wide…….. we can see Elenin at this distance because of the growing size of it’s coma. People get concerned because they are told the size of elenin is massive yet it is the atmosphere of gas and cloud which is large…… and of course not solid.

      It is now looking more likely that elenin will not be visible from Earth with the naked eye and people will need a telescope or binoculars to see elenin in October.

  11. Thanks for deleting my post

  12. This fall all of you will see the transformation of Earth!

  13. Big news in Today. confirmation from NASA that a Trojan asteroid named 2010 TK7 has been pinpoited ahead of earths orbist at 80 Million Km however this distance can vary to as close as 34 Million Km. Now comet Elenin is going to pas ( WE ARE TOLD ) 34 Million Km ahead of earth………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..hmmmmmmmm Coolisons theory here anyone ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14307987

    • The chances of a small rock hitting another small rock, relatively speaking, in space is unlikely (though over a long long long time period collisions do happen) The distances involved are huge, and two small bodies would not have large enough gravity to attract. However not sure how the electric universe theory would relate to this.

      Interesting stuff…..

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